Memory lane



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Posted by: stak
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Posted on: 2009-03-04 23:58:18

So the other day I was looking for one of my older posts and instead I would up reading a bunch of them and realized just how wrong I am when I predict stuff. So I went back two years in posts and here's a mish-mash of forward-looking statements I made:

  • Post #269 - Froogle. I said that in a couple of years Google Product Search would be considered a viable contender to Amazon. Well, they've got a couple of months before the deadline is up, but I'm not holding out any hope of that one happening. FAIL.
  • Post #276 - Google Gears. Well, this one's a mixed bag. At this point, Gears is really only used by Google products, and very few people have Gears installed in their browsers. Although they're still moving in the direction I talked about in that post, they're not going very fast. Need more time to see where this ends up.
  • Post #287 - Parakey. Not only does parakey.com seem to have been wiped of the face of the earth, so does blakeross.com. And whatever their stuff might have looked like, I don't see it in Facebook. At all. I didn't have any predictions on this one, but looks like my "hope" was squashed pretty flat.
  • Post #292 - Javascript. I can barely believe I wrote this post. It's amazing how much working as a browser developer has changed my views of the web. I hate Javascript more than I ever have in my life, and I hate the web developers who abuse it so much more. I'm amused when I realize that the "dom.appendChild" problem I mentioned with Safari in that post was actually correct behavior on Safari's part and incorrect behavior by everybody else. Javascript 2.0/Ecmascript 4.0 has since been killed, to be replaced with Ecmascript Harmony. Firebug is waay better than Opera's new Dragonfly debugger. Really I just take back everything I said in that post.
  • Post #300 - The 700Mhz spectrum. Well that's come and gone, with Verizon the winner. 'Nuff said.
  • Post #316 - Micro-hoo. Seeing as how this never actually happened my predictions are irrelevant. But I'm wondering if the whole ordeal succeeded in shaking up both Yahoo! and Microsoft somewhat from their complacency. I don't really know, but if it did I don't think it was enough.
  • Post #322 - IE8. It's been a year and a day since they announced their intention to ship IE8 with standards mode as default. They haven't flip-flopped on that decision. Keepin' my fingers crossed...


I'm sure if I dig deeper into my post archives I can find lots more examples of outrageous prediction failures but really that would just be depressing. I remember lots of google-related predictions for pie-in-the-sky ideas that never went anywhere. It also seems like I've significantly reduced my frequency of prediction posts, which is probably for the best anyway. And of course, this post wouldn't be complete without at least one more prediction: I predict I will post even fewer predictions in the upcoming year than I did last year. Ha!

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